MLB Weekly Preview 7/20-26
A Mets sell-off is imminent plus more trade deadline thoughts
By Jorge Eckardt and Mike Mavredakis
Hello! The second half of the MLB season is officially underway. We are exactly two weeks away from the trade deadline, and the stove is about to heat up.
A bit of housekeeping, we’ve decided to fold the week recap into the week preview. The two were very similar, released on back-to-back days and served the same general purpose. So, if you’re wondering why there was no recap yesterday, that’s why. Don’t worry, the best elements of the recap are still here, they just have a new home in the preview. Now let’s get to it.
News & Notes
A few days ago, Chelsea Janes of SNY reported that the New York Mets are open for business. Everyone but Juan Soto, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Christian Scott, and Nolan McLean are available. Most notably, that list does not include Francisco Lindor. So, who will stay and who will go? Let’s break down the rest of the 26-man roster and a couple of other currently injured players into tiers.
Must trade: Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, Brooks Raley, A.J. Minter, Tyrone Taylor. These are all mostly obvious. All five will be free agents next year, and selling teams need to sell the rentals. All five will have markets. The only potentially controversial pick is Holmes because there is some talk of an extension, but I think they should trade the 33-year-old pitcher rather than lock him up for year 34 and onward.
If the price tag is met: Luke Weaver, Devin Williams, Huascar Brazobán, Jared Young. Everyone needs bullpen pieces. The three arms would all net at least something decent back—Weaver something more than decent—and Young could be a contributor somewhere. They are also under team control for at least next season when the Mets will try to compete again. They should trade them for the right package, but don’t give them away.
Catchers: Francisco Alvarez, Luis Torrens. Neither will be untouchable, but this is a solid catching duo, and catchers are hard to find. It needs to really be worth it.
Probably too expensive to move: Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco and Sean Manaea. If the Mets can move any of these players, they should jump at the opportunity. The reporting is they’re not eager to eat salary to trade players, though, so I would bet on all four of these players staying put. Bichette and Robert are the most likely to go, but even then I doubt it.
No market, high salary: Marcus Semien, Kodai Senga. These two cost a lot and have been very, very bad. They’ll stay.
Too young: Zach Thornton. On the active roster so has to be included here, but just no world where someone three starts into his MLB career gets traded.
It’s time to move on: Brett Baty, Mark Vientos. Like it says, it’s time. Both have over 1,200 at-bats as a Met, and both have a career wRC+ under 100. Some team can probably use Baty as a utility man, and someone else can use Vientos as a short-side platoon 1B/DH, but their time in Queens should come to an end.
Roster filler: Xzavion Curry, Cionel Pérez, Eric Wagaman. If someone wants them, take cash considerations, but odds are no one will ask.
Don’t even think about it: Francisco Lindor.
What team do you think won’t sell, but should?
The Houston Astros. Team owner Jim Crane and Co. do not like to sell and reports point to them adding despite a desolate rotation and a flawed outfield group. The team is currently 47-54. They are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card with five teams ahead of them and have just a 14.1% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. In my opinion, a team should not buy significantly unless it thinks it can make a championship series, and this team simply does not have the pitching to get there. Luckily for them, pitching is available in droves this deadline, but they have little in the way of interesting young players to beat out other contenders to those arms. Baseball America has ranked the Astros farm system as the 26th-best in baseball, with only two true contenders behind them: the Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies. Houston could push its next window up by at least a year or two by selling off short-term control options like Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, Bryan Abreu and Steven Okert. Peña was in extension talks with the franchise last year before hiring agent Scott Boras, who famously encourages his players to hit free agency as early as possible. Trading him for a haul with a year-and-a-half of control remaining is the prudent decision to make. Same goes for Paredes with the same control, and Abreu and Okert are true rentals who should net a valuable return in a sellers market. General manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada are in the final year of their contracts, so unless Crane directs the organization to sell it seems they are headed toward a buy, in part to try to save the front office leaders’ job. Buying in this market is an obvious and avoidable mistake. - Mike
The Detroit Tigers. The latest reporting is the Tigers do not plan on trading Tarik Skubal, and that would be a catastrophic and franchise-altering mistake. I understand Skubal reportedly said that he does not want to be traded, but frankly, the Tigers do not have any obligation to honor that request. Skubal is leaving in the offseason. He knows it. The Tigers know it. Everyone knows it. The Tigers need to do what’s in the best interests of their organization’s future, and that means trading Skubal. Detroit has been hot over the last few weeks and are still 46-53, in fourth place in the AL Central and 6.5 games back of first. They have the fourth-worst record in the American League. In the AL this year, that means “only” 4.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, but they would need to leapfrog six teams to get there. The Tigers need to accept where this season is headed and sell. Skubal can likely get back multiple top 100 prospects, and other assets like Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty can also likely net solid returns. There’s an opportunity here for Detroit to add some real talent and transform their future, and they’re going to pass up on it in a fruitless push for the third Wild Card spot—and then lose Skubal anyway. - Jorge
What surprise impact player will be moved at the deadline?
George Kirby. The Seattle Mariners have the second-fewest runs and the worst defense by defensive fWAR in the American League. The Mariners are reportedly willing to consider trading from their cache of starting pitchers—although that is more likely to be veteran starter Luis Castillo—and they need bats badly. Kirby could fetch them an impact piece in a buyer-to-buyer trade, like a swap for CJ Abrams from the Washington Nationals. Both pieces have two-and-a-half years of control as well, so the timing matches up. While the Nationals are likely to fall out of the hunt this year, president of baseball operations Paul Toboni is building something frisky in Washington, and capitalizing on Abrams’ overperformance this season with a big swing for a reliable arm like Kirby would be an ideal fit. The Nationals would likely have to add a second piece, maybe infielder Luis García Jr. or a top organizational prospect like right-hander Jarlin Susana, to get a deal done here, but this is the kind of deal that could have major impact. - Mike
Alright, let’s get crazy. Fernando Tatis Jr. Yep. Tatis. Beloved in San Diego Tatis. Signed a 14-year mega deal Tatis. Under contract for eight more seasons and owed over $270 million more Tatis. I don’t know if I actually believe this, but if anyone is crazy enough to do it, it’s A.J. Preller. Even Tatis knows that. “It’s A.J. Who knows?” Tatis was quoted in a recent story by Dennis Lin of The Athletic saying. “Anything can be in play. Probably even me.” See! Even he thinks he can be traded. Ok, sure, he followed that up with “No, I’m kidding. But let’s see what happens,” but hey, the seed is there. Here’s why it could happen: Tatis is owed a ton of money over the next eight seasons. The extension he signed was backloaded, so even though he’s in year No. 6 of his 14-year contract, he’ll have only been paid roughly 19% of the total value of the contract by year’s end. The Padres could get out of a lot of money here, and maybe even try to attach Xander Bogaerts and the about $178 million still owed to him over the next seven years to the trade. I think they’re stuck with Manny Machado and the about $273 million owed to him over the next seven years, though. But anyway, maybe the Padres tear it down. They have a sub-.500 record, the worst farm system in baseball, a team full of aging players on albatross contracts and a behemoth at the top of the division. Maybe they take Tatis, along with other real assets like Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón and Michael King, and blow it up. Attach bad contracts to the tradable assets, get some serious money off the books, restock the farm and start fresh under new owners José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones. Try to wait out the Dodgers and their current core of stars over 30. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Max Muncy won’t play forever! I didn’t really believe this as I started writing, but I think I’ve sold myself on it. You’re not beating Los Angeles now, maybe hit the reset button and try to set yourself up to beat them in a few years. And whatever you do, San Diego, don’t look at what the big bad Dodgers have down on the farm. - Jorge
The Kitchen Sink
Cherry-picked stat of the week: Greg Maddux has the most starts in MLB history with exactly six innings pitched and three earned runs given up. He did so 30 times, first on July 6, 1989, and last on April 2, 2008—6,845 days apart. It’s the worst line someone can have and still record a quality start. Hey, that’s the name of this newsletter.
Deep-league dynasty fantasy baseball prospect: Carter Graham (1B/3B, CIN). 1% rostered on Fantrax.
MLB Player Highlight: Christian Scott. The Mets have him untouchable for a reason. After breaking out as a prospect in 2023 and making his MLB debut in 2024, Scott’s hype train got shut down for repairs after he tore his UCL. About a year and a half and one internal-brace surgery later, and it’s about time to get the train moving again. Scott has been fantastic for the Mets this season, posting a 2.87 ERA in 59.2 innings with 72 strikeouts. He hasn’t been perfect. Like many guys fresh off of elbow surgery his control has been a little spotty, but even then, it’s improving. In his first eight starts of the year, he had an 11.5% walk rate. In his last five, it’s been 8.2%. In his most recent start, he went 5.2 innings and didn’t walk a batter for only the second time all season. He has now thrown 10.2 scoreless innings with just one walk and 12 strikeouts over his last two starts. It’s starting to really click. The 27-year-old should have the floor of a mid-rotation starter, with upside for a little more.
Guys Naming Dudes:
Brandon Inge (I have his 2010 Topps error card that listed him as a pitcher and it’s a crown jewel of my collection) - Mike
Mark Trumbo - Jorge
For last week’s Prospects We’re Thinking About, we highlighted outfielders Mike Sirota, Slater de Brun and Josiah Ragsdale, as well as right-handed pitcher Dylan Jordan. We may have cursed Sirota, since he immediately lost his near-record 72-game on-base streak in the minor leagues after the All-Star break and has not gotten a hit in his last 16 plate appearances dating back to July 10. Alas, he’s a player who should be firmly on the radar, and the Dodgers should be inclined to keep him through this deadline.
With the second half looming, we took part of the All-Star break and opening weekend to predict some hitting and pitching breakouts for the stretch run.
On the hitting side, we picked Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson, St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbar, Miami Marlins outfielder Heriberto Hernández and his teammate, catcher Joe Mack. We also broke down why we think potential debutants Héctor Rodriguez and Hendry Mendez will make an impact upon their call-ups.
For our breakout arms, we tabbed Tampa Bay Rays lefty Ian Seymour, San Francisco Giants righty Trevor McDonald, Toronto Blue Jays righty Spencer Miles and Los Angeles Dodgers righty Emmet Sheehan. Prospect-wise we suggested Milwaukee Brewers righty Tyson Hardin and Mariners lefty Kade Anderson.